In a sharp rebuttal, Bayo Onanuga, Senior Special Adviser on Information Strategy to PresidentBola Ahmed Tinubu, has contested claims by outgoing African Development Bank (AfDB) President Akinwumi Adesina that Nigerians are worse off today than in 1960. Adesina’s assertion, based on alleged GDP per capita figures of $1,847 in 1960 and $824 today, has been labeled inaccurate by Onanuga, who cites data showing Nigeria’s GDP per capita in 1960 was a mere $93 for a population of 44.9 million, with GDP at $4.2 billion.
Onanuga highlights that Nigeria’s GDP only saw significant growth in the 1970s due to booming crude oil earnings, reaching $12.55 billion in 1970, $64.2 billion in 1980, and $164 billion in 1981. Per capita income peaked at $3,200 in 2014 post-rebasing, casting doubt on Adesina’s figures and their source.
Beyond disputing the numbers, Onanuga argues that GDP per capita is a flawed metric for assessing living standards. “It masks wealth distribution, income inequality, and the informal economy, which experts say is enormous,” he states. He emphasizes that it has failed to capture improvements in healthcare, education, transportation, and telecommunications since 1960. For instance, Nigeria had only 18,724 phone lines at independence, compared to over 200 million Nigerians with mobile phone access today, signaling significant progress.
Onanuga also points to the telecom boom as evidence of Nigeria’s economic potential beyond GDP metrics. When Vodacom hesitated to enter Nigeria in 1999, citing low GDP figures, MTN and others proved the market’s viability, with MTN reporting N1 trillion in revenue and 84 million subscribers in Q1 2025. “Does this reflect a country worse off than in 1960?” Onanuga asks.
He acknowledges Nigeria’s informal economy, which may dwarf the formal sector, and calls for a broader assessment of economic progress. As the National Bureau of Statistics prepares to recalibrate Nigeria’s GDP, Onanuga asserts that the economy is likely 50 to 100 times larger than at independence.
This debate underscores the complexity of measuring economic progress and the need for nuanced metrics to reflect Nigeria’s true growth trajectory.
