Nigeria’s Economic Regression: A Stark Warning from AfDB President Dr. Akinwumi Adesina

In a sobering address that has reverberated across economic circles, Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank (AfDB), has issued a clarion call for Nigeria to confront a deepening economic crisis. Speaking on May 2, 2025, Adesina revealed a startling statistic: Nigeria’s GDP per capita has plummeted to $824 today, a sharp decline from $1,847 at the time of independence in 1960. This regression, he warned, signals that Nigerians are significantly worse off now than they were 64 years ago—a reality that demands urgent and transformative action.

For stakeholders in Nigeria’s economic ecosystem—policymakers, investors, business leaders, and development partners—Adesina’s remarks underscore a critical juncture. The nation’s economic trajectory, marked by decades of policy missteps, weak institutional frameworks, and an over-reliance on crude oil exports, has led to what he describes as a “deeper economic regression than many realise.” This is not merely a statistical downturn but a systemic challenge that threatens Nigeria’s future prosperity and its role as Africa’s largest economy.

At independence, Nigeria stood at a crossroads of immense potential. With a GDP per capita of $1,847, the country was poised for growth, buoyed by agricultural exports, nascent industries, and a youthful population. In contrast, South Korea, often cited by Adesina as a benchmark, had a GDP per capita of just $1,100 in 1960. Fast forward to today, South Korea’s GDP per capita soars at $36,000, while Nigeria’s has dwindled to $824. This divergence, Adesina argues, is not a matter of fate but of choices—choices Nigeria must now urgently revisit.

The decline in GDP per capita reflects broader structural issues. Over-dependence on oil has left Nigeria vulnerable to global price shocks, while underinvestment in agriculture, manufacturing, and technology has stifled diversification. Weak governance, corruption, and inconsistent policies have further eroded economic resilience, leaving millions of Nigerians trapped in poverty despite the nation’s vast resources.

For stakeholders, Adesina’s warning is both a wake-up call and a roadmap. Policymakers must prioritize bold reforms to strengthen institutions, enhance transparency, and foster an enabling environment for private-sector growth. Investors, both domestic and international, face the challenge of navigating a complex landscape but also the opportunity to drive innovation in sectors like renewable energy, agribusiness, and digital technology—areas Adesina has long championed as engines of inclusive growth.

Business leaders, particularly in SMEs, which form the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, must advocate for policies that reduce bureaucratic hurdles and improve access to finance. Development partners, including institutions like the AfDB, have a pivotal role in providing technical assistance and catalytic funding to support Nigeria’s transition to a more diversified and resilient economy.

Adesina’s message is clear: Nigeria cannot afford complacency. The AfDB, under his leadership, has committed to supporting the country’s economic transformation through initiatives like the $520 million Special Agro-Industrial Processing Zones (SAPZ) program, aimed at boosting agricultural productivity and job creation. Yet, the onus lies on Nigeria’s stakeholders to act decisively. Structural reforms, investments in human capital, and a shift toward value-added industries are non-negotiable steps to reverse the current trajectory.

As Nigeria grapples with this economic crossroads, Adesina’s stark warning serves as both a challenge and an opportunity. The path to recovery will require courage, collaboration, and a shared vision for a Nigeria that not only recaptures its past promise but surpasses it. For stakeholders, the time to act is now—before the window for meaningful change closes.