The world in 2025 is a tinderbox of geopolitical tensions, and Nigeria must navigate this landscape to restore its African leadership. Conflicts like the Iran-Israel shadow war, the Russia-Ukraine stalemate, the India-Pakistan crisis, and Africa’s own insurgencies shape a volatile backdrop that tests Nigeria’s strategic resolve.
In the Middle East, Israel’s 2025 strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, following Hamas’s 2023 attack, have weakened Tehran’s proxies, including Hezbollah, and toppled Syria’s Assad regime. Iran, strained but defiant, faces domestic unrest and nuclear talks with the U.S., which could reshape regional dynamics. Nigeria, hosting the West Africa Economic Summit 2025, can leverage its ECOWAS role to mediate similar de-escalations, drawing lessons from Iran’s vulnerability and Israel’s assertive posture.
The Russia-Ukraine war, now in its third year, sees Russia’s economy retooled for conflict, bolstered by North Korean troops and Iranian arms, while Ukraine’s Kursk offensive stalls. U.S. support wanes under Trump’s “America First” policy, risking European instability. Nigeria, with its non-aligned stance, can position itself as a neutral broker, advocating for African interests in global forums as great powers clash.
In South Asia, the India-Pakistan conflict flared in May 2025 after a terrorist attack in Kashmir killed 26. India’s Operation Sindoor targeted militant sites, while Pakistan’s counterstrikes escalated tensions. A U.S.-brokered ceasefire held, but nuclear risks linger. Nigeria, facing its own ISWAP attacks (15 military bases overrun in 2025), can learn from India’s high-intensity response to terrorism while avoiding escalation traps.
Africa’s conflicts—Sudan’s civil war (150,000 dead, 12 million displaced), Rwanda-backed rebellions in DRC, and Sahel insurgencies—mirror Nigeria’s security challenges. The Sudanese Armed Forces, backed by Egypt and Iran, battle UAE-supported Rapid Support Forces, complicating regional stability. Nigeria must strengthen its military ($2.6 billion budget in 2024) and coordinate with ECOWAS to counter such proxy wars, drawing on its summit platform.
To reclaim clout, Nigeria must act decisively: enhance counterinsurgency with tech and regional alliances, diversify its economy (34% inflation in 2025), and reform governance to curb corruption. By projecting soft power and mediating conflicts, Nigeria can lead West Africa. Stakeholders must back these efforts, as Nigeria’s success amid global turmoil will shape Africa’s future.
