Sources close to the negotiations indicate that the deal, which has been the subject of intense back-and-forth, could be finalized within hours, marking a significant shift in U.S.-Ukraine relations and the global critical minerals market.
A Deal Born of Necessity
The agreement stems from months of discussions that gained momentum following Trump’s renewed focus on securing Ukraine’s vast reserves of rare earth elements and other critical minerals. These resources—estimated to be worth trillions of dollars—include titanium, lithium, and rare earths essential for advanced technology, defense systems, and clean energy solutions. With Ukraine holding some of the world’s largest untapped deposits, the stakes are high for both nations.
For Zelenskyy, the deal represents a pragmatic response to Ukraine’s urgent need for security guarantees and economic stability amid its ongoing conflict with Russia. Since February 2022, Ukraine has relied heavily on Western support to counter Russian aggression, with the U.S. providing over $100 billion in aid. However, Trump’s administration has signaled a shift, tying future assistance to tangible economic returns—namely, access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth.
In a recent statement, Zelenskyy emphasized the mutual benefits of the partnership. “If we are talking about a deal, then let’s do a deal,” he said during an interview earlier this month. “We are ready to work with our American partners to ensure security and prosperity for both sides.” The Ukrainian leader has stressed that any agreement must align with national interests and include robust protections against exploitation—a point of contention in earlier drafts.
The Terms Taking Shape
While specifics remain under wraps, reports suggest the deal will grant U.S. companies preferential access to Ukraine’s mineral resources, potentially in exchange for continued military and financial support. Initial proposals from the Trump administration, including one delivered by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on February 12, demanded a 50% stake in mineral revenues—a figure Zelenskyy rejected as “colonial” and lacking security commitments. The revised draft, honed over weeks of negotiations, appears to have addressed some of Kyiv’s concerns, though exact terms await official confirmation.
National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on February 21, hinted at the deal’s imminence. “President Zelenskyy is going to sign that deal, and you will see that in the very short term,” Waltz said, framing it as a cornerstone of broader ceasefire talks with Russia. The agreement could also involve Ukraine’s vast underground gas storage facilities, positioning the country as a hub for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Europe—a prospect Zelenskyy has endorsed.
Implications for Stakeholders
For global stakeholders, the ramifications are profound. The U.S., seeking to reduce reliance on China’s dominance in rare earth supply chains, stands to gain a strategic foothold in a resource-rich ally. American firms in technology, defense, and energy sectors could see a boon, though the feasibility of extraction remains uncertain—nearly 20% of Ukraine’s mineral deposits lie in Russian-occupied territories, complicating development.
For Ukraine, the deal offers a lifeline but carries risks. Economic analysts warn that prioritizing foreign investment over domestic control could hinder long-term recovery, especially if security guarantees fall short. Mining operations, dormant since the war’s onset, will require significant capital and infrastructure rebuilding, presenting opportunities—and challenges—for international investors.
European allies, meanwhile, watch with unease. Excluded from direct talks, the EU has pushed for its own mineral partnerships with Ukraine, fearing a U.S.-centric deal could sideline their interests. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron have vowed to maintain solidarity with Kyiv, with Macron set to raise the issue during a Washington visit next week.
A Geopolitical Tightrope
The timing of the deal underscores its dual role as an economic pact and a diplomatic lever. Trump’s administration has pressed for a swift resolution to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, with minerals serving as both incentive and bargaining chip. Yet, Zelenskyy’s insistence on linking resource access to security reflects Ukraine’s precarious position—caught between Russian advances and shifting U.S. priorities.
Critics argue the deal echoes Trump’s transactional foreign policy, prioritizing American gains over multilateral cooperation. Supporters, including Senator Lindsey Graham, counter that it reframes Ukraine as a valuable partner rather than a perpetual aid recipient. “Trump now sees Ukraine differently,” Graham noted at the Munich Security Conference. “These people are sitting on a gold mine.”
What’s Next?
As the clock ticks toward a potential signing, stakeholders across industries and governments brace for impact. Will the deal unlock Ukraine’s mineral potential and cement U.S. influence, or will it falter under the weight of war and competing interests? For now, all eyes are on Kyiv—and Washington—as this historic agreement nears the finish line.
Stakeholders Magazine will continue to monitor this story as details emerge.
